Middle East war reshapes US Arab allies' strategic outlook

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is forcing Washington’s Arab partners to rethink long-standing security and economic ties. Analysts say the war’s duration and regional spillover risks have pushed traditional US allies to seek new partnerships. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, long dependent on Washington for military support and intelligence, are now exploring alternatives to reduce vulnerability. The shift comes as US influence in the region faces unprecedented challenges. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has accelerated talks with China and Russia on defense cooperation. In March, Riyadh signed a five-year agreement with Beijing to train Saudi officers in drone warfare. The UAE has also expanded military drills with India and France, signaling a broader pivot away from sole reliance on the US. Oil-rich Gulf states are diversifying trade routes as well. The UAE’s non-oil trade with China reached $72 billion in 2023, up from $45 billion in 2018. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to China now exceed those to the US. These economic realignments reflect a growing perception that US commitment to regional security may be less reliable than in past decades. Western diplomats warn that this shift could weaken Washington’s ability to mediate future conflicts. A senior US State Department official said last week that America remains the primary security guarantor but acknowledged the need to adapt to new realities. The official spoke on condition of anonymity as discussions with Arab partners continue behind closed doors. The changes underway do not yet amount to a complete break with the US. Arab leaders still view American military technology and intelligence as irreplaceable. Yet the war in Gaza and US policy shifts under President Biden have accelerated a process long feared by Washington: the erosion of trust among its oldest regional allies.